Taylor Swift's album "folklore" expected to go back to #1 in its 7th week after the CMA Performance

[Barajas]

1 hour ago, Blackout2006 said:

lover didnt flop

Well it was not a total failure, but Lover was the first album to not surpass 1 million sales in the first week since Speak Now.
Lover neither had any #1 single. All this despites the huge promotion and high budget videos/performances she delivered. 

Considering how competitive Taylor appears to be in her Miss Americana documentary , im pretty sure she felt Lover was a flop and that´s probably why she is rushing this release. 

In Miss Americana she also mentioned how all her career is already planned in 2 years cycles for new albums.. and she is gonna change that today for some reason .

[LeglessJamie]

I'm like one the BIGGEST Swifties out here and I have a feeling this album WON'T DO WELL.

Why? First of all, Lover is only 11 months old and people are still not over it. It has only just re-entered the iTunes top 5 which clearly indicates the Lover era is still going strong.

A lot of fellow Swifties were eager for a 5th single, Cruel Summer. Ofcourse hardcore fans like me will buy it but I don't see the GP buying it.

Second, the timing. Corona cases are rising again in many places including Europe. Some have called a second wave already. Needless to say this may impact physical sales. Streaming numbers won't get affected that much though.

Third, from the album asthetics I sense a country vibe which may take Taylor back to her older roots. Taylor's best selling records are those that are more Pop oriented (1989....). I hope I am wrong but the album's artwork clearly states it isn't as pop/bubblegum oriented as her previous albums. Many Swifties, including myself, prefer pop girl Taylor. The whole album is giving me "Man Of The Woods" by Justin Timberlake vibes.

Fourth, no hype was really created. Whereas Taylor would post cryptic messages as wich Reputation and Lover (snake stuff, palm trees, ...) she didn't do any of these.

My conclusion;

I think she will hit the #1 spot nonetheless cause of her superpower but I think the sale numbers will be her weakest in years.

She releases 8(!!) different editions and if each one counts as 1 sale, this will be A SUPER SMART thing to do cause I have already seen a lot of fans buying all of them (which is more than 200 bucks!!).

I am crazy but not crazy enough to buy them all. I will buy the album once it hits the physical stores...not wanting to pay customs and a lot of shipping cost in these corona times.....

I hope I am wrong and I hop it will outdo Lover but I'm really doubting it will.

[BritneyFanatic2014]

14 minutes ago, Blackout2006 said:

Uhhhh, the album was the fifth-best selling album of 2019...not that I’m saying that’s bad but it wasn’t the best selling album of 2019

In the US it was the top selling album of 2019. Here you go! #2a99c5d22c99" rel="external nofollow">https://www.forbes.com/sites/hughmcintyre/2020/01/16/taylor-swift-bts-and-billie-eilish-the-10-bestselling-albums-in-the-us-in-2019/#2a99c5d22c99

 

[Invitation]

Lover sold 867k copies in the first week in US. That era will have to be really detrimental to Taylor's career for this one to not manage 500k, and I think it's not that bad. After all, Lover  (the song) and You Need To Calm Down did OK.

 

BTS did at least an album every year and their last one sold 422k  first week in the US. Taylor's albums are always successful. 

[Blackout2006]

Just now, BritneyFanatic2014 said:

In the US it was the top selling album of 2019. Here you go! #2a99c5d22c99" rel="external nofollow">https://www.forbes.com/sites/hughmcintyre/2020/01/16/taylor-swift-bts-and-billie-eilish-the-10-bestselling-albums-in-the-us-in-2019/#2a99c5d22c99

 

Oh but that’s just the US, right?
WW, it was the 5th best-sellling album of 2019. Here’s my source  

https://www.mediatraffic.de/albums-2019.htm

[Blackout2006]

6 minutes ago, Barajas said:

Well it was not a total failure, but Lover was the first album to not surpass 1 million sales in the first week since Speak Now.
Lover neither had any #1 single. All this despites the huge promotion and high budget videos/performances she delivered. 

Considering how competitive Taylor appears to be in her Miss Americana documentary , im pretty sure she felt Lover was a flop and that´s probably why she is rushing this release. 

In Miss Americana she also mentioned how all her career is already planned in 2 years cycles for new albums.. and she is gonna change that today for some reason .

Well, yeah I too agree that for her standards, it was quite low. However, for an artist who has been in the industry for 14 years, there was tough competition in 2019 because of newcomers, being 30 years old, it’s pretty good she was able to sell 3 million but yeah, I can see what u mean

[Blackout2006]

7 minutes ago, Invitation said:

Lover sold 867k copies in the first week in US. That era will have to be really detrimental to Taylor's career for this one to not manage 500k, and I think it's not that bad. After all, Lover  (the song) and You Need To Calm Down did OK.

 

BTS did at least an album every year and their last one sold 422k  first week in the US. Taylor's albums are always successful. 

Like the consequences mentioned above, to sell 500k would be so hard, that’s why I think 198k is the highest she could go

[Barajas]

Just now, Blackout2006 said:

Well, yeah I too agree that for her standards, it was quite low. However, for an artist who has been in the industry for 14 years, there was tough competition in 2019 because of newcomers, being 30 years old, it’s pretty good she was able to sell 3 million but yeah, I can see what u mean

Yes it was still a pretty good mark, but it started a downfall for Taylors sales record. I think that the two main factors behind this were:
1) Kanye / Kim drama and Taylor being "exposed" (which we now know was pure BS)
2) Me! as the album lead single. 

I dontt know how a country/indie album would perform now to be honest..  
I think she is going to sale 500, maybe 600K if the lead single is good. 

[Blackout2006]

3 minutes ago, Barajas said:

Yes it was still a pretty good mark, but it started a downfall for Taylors sales record. I think that the two main factors behind this were:
1) Kanye / Kim drama and Taylor being "exposed" (which we now know was pure BS)
2) Me! as the album lead single. 

I dontt know how a country/indie album would perform now to be honest..  
I think she is going to sale 500, maybe 600K if the lead single is good. 

Yeah same here, but I believe in the lover era, she had redemption with the GP and everyone forgot about that. However yes, her dominance and power, is being challenged by newcomers like Billie Eilish who had the best selling album and song of 2019, Ariana grande who just got into her peak last year, Dua lipa, and many other artist. I think it’s quite obvious once the mid 20s roll in. However I don’t think the album will sell 500k or 600k, 190k-350k is a safe guess 

[Blackout2006]

25 minutes ago, IForgotYouExisted said:

I'm like one the BIGGEST Swifties out here and I have a feeling this album WON'T DO WELL.

Why? First of all, Lover is only 11 months old and people are still not over it. It has only just re-entered the iTunes top 5 which clearly indicates the Lover era is still going strong.

A lot of fellow Swifties were eager for a 5th single, Cruel Summer. Ofcourse hardcore fans like me will buy it but I don't see the GP buying it.

Second, the timing. Corona cases are rising again in many places including Europe. Some have called a second wave already. Needless to say this may impact physical sales. Streaming numbers won't get affected that much though.

Third, from the album asthetics I sense a country vibe which may take Taylor back to her older roots. Taylor's best selling records are those that are more Pop oriented (1989....). I hope I am wrong but the album's artwork clearly states it isn't as pop/bubblegum oriented as her previous albums. Many Swifties, including myself, prefer pop girl Taylor. The whole album is giving me "Man Of The Woods" by Justin Timberlake vibes.

Fourth, no hype was really created. Whereas Taylor would post cryptic messages as wich Reputation and Lover (snake stuff, palm trees, ...) she didn't do any of these.

My conclusion;

I think she will hit the #1 spot nonetheless cause of her superpower but I think the sale numbers will be her weakest in years.

She releases 8(!!) different editions and if each one counts as 1 sale, this will be A SUPER SMART thing to do cause I have already seen a lot of fans buying all of them (which is more than 200 bucks!!).

I am crazy but not crazy enough to buy them all. I will buy the album once it hits the physical stores...not wanting to pay customs and a lot of shipping cost in these corona times.....

I hope I am wrong and I hop it will outdo Lover but I'm really doubting it will.

110% agree with you! Under such limiting and scary situations, I won’t get how people would go and buy a copy. 

[BritneyFanatic2014]

22 minutes ago, Blackout2006 said:

Oh but that’s just the US, right?
WW, it was the 5th best-sellling album of 2019. Here’s my source  

https://www.mediatraffic.de/albums-2019.htm

so we're both right lol but either way that's still pretty amazing. 

[Blackout2006]

Just now, BritneyFanatic2014 said:

so we're both right lol but either way that's still pretty amazing. 

Yeah! Those numbers are pretty good, so I am really interested to see where #TS8 goes

[Invitation]

46 minutes ago, Blackout2006 said:

Like the consequences mentioned above, to sell 500k would be so hard, that’s why I think 198k is the highest she could go

198K??

She won’t do any lower than Chromatica.

[Blackout2006]

Just now, Invitation said:

198K??

She won’t do any lower than Chromatica.

I don’t expect you know, freaking...500k in a time and period like 2020 where everyone is wondering, worried and scared about what’s going to happen next, for them to buy a copy of Taylor’s new album. Chromatica might have came out in a time where the situation was worse, but what we r going through rn is 3x worse. Heck I don’t even expect her to do 450k. However the safest guess above 198k is 200-350k.

[Style.]

Taylor will smash the table once again. The album will do around 500k-600k, at the end of the day she’s a business woman and has a lot of power and also a great team behind her. 
 

Mark my words. 

[Eda]

She will do 700k-800k in first week.

It already sold 250k in China

[Blackout2006]

3 minutes ago, Eda said:

She will do 700k-800k in first week.

It already sold 250k in China

The album is not out yet...

[Blackout2006]

@Towelney  @MrPieceOfMe what’d you think?

[MissSpearsSaysSo]

T Swizzy always brings nice numbers. I think 300K is possible. 

[Blackout2006]

2 minutes ago, MissSpearsSaysSo said:

T Swizzy always brings nice numbers. I think 300K is possible. 

Agree!